Santa Barbara Area Sales Hitting Bottom?

January was very slow with respects to home sales in the Santa Barbara, Goleta, Carpinteria and Montecito areas.

Maybe even a record low. That is the lowest number I can remember, and I've been around since the mid 80's. The map below shows the sales that did occur. Feel free to check out your favorite neighborhood.

This would lead me to believe the bottom is here!

(Edited 2-27-09) For those of you that may have found this from this link; http://santabarbarasblog.com/?p=2816 I do appreciate you coming by. As for the folks who have commented on that blog let me clear the record about a couple things. I am not a realtor and never have been. I also think the number of transactions is what has hit bottom, not prices. I do believe that prices will take quite a bit more time to recover. Thanks for the exposure santabarbarablog.com.

If you don't believe the number of transactions will start to improve then how do explain what is going on in Santa Maria and Lompoc and across the rest of the state? The bottom of the market is certainly showing a higher number of transactions and I would think that will hit us on the south coast some time this year.

November Sales Turn Cold!

There are certainly many records being set in the financial world these days. Real Estate is no different. The number of Santa Barbara area homes sold in November is another all time low as far as I know. I did have my hopes up that the last quarter of this year would see more sales than last year.

Two months in to the last quarter of the year and the Santa Barbara Real Estate Sales are 3 transactions behind where they were last year. Come on December! In 2007 there were 93 transactions in December. After seeing what we opened as a company in November it is going to be close. We have a number of transactions that are wanting to close by the end of the year, so there may be a small surge.

So what did sell in November of 2008? The highest priced sale was a property in the Carpinteria, Montecito area at 915 Cima Del Mundo for $6,500,000. That has become a pretty hot area for the well to do recently. Other than that Montecito had the usual 2, 3, & 4 million dollar sales.

The rest of the South County saw pretty normal sales prices and nothing really out of the ordinary for this market. Santa Barbara, Montecito, & Carpinteria all had fewer homes sell this year than last. Goleta was the one area that saw a small increase in home sales over last year.

Check out your favorite area on the map below.

Lompoc And Santa Ynez Valley Home Sales

I'm seeing a recovery going on in the Lompoc area. With 64 properties selling in September. Most of them being homes.  I'm sure that the increased home sales are not just a short term trend. 21 of these properties sold for $200,000 or less. Another 21 sold for $300,000 or less, and 22 properties sold for over $300,000.
It would appear to me at first glance that the 2 higher priced sales in Lompoc were commercial buildings.

• 1225 N. H St. $1,050,000
• 129 W. Central $1,500,000

Moving on to the Santa Ynez Valley area, there wasn't much activity. 7 sales in total with 4 of the 6 being $1,600,000 or over.

• 2920 Bramadero Rd. $1,600,000
• 3080 Montecielo Rd. $1,775,000
• 1080 Viendra Rd. $2,050,000
• 1925 Still Meadow Rd. $2,300,000

What is being seen in the Lompoc area is indicative of what I'm hearing about across southern california and the country. There are many areas, most of them the ones that were hit hardest by foreclosures that are now seeing activity because of the the low prices. Having the volume of sales increase is the first sign things are going in the right direction.

Santa Maria Home Sales Continue Their Brisk Pace

While the stock market has been the topic du jour. The northern part of Santa Barbara County has been doing a great job of showing signs of a real estate recovery.

The Santa Maria area had almost 200 properties transfer in September to a new end user. That is a very substantial number and crushes anything the south coast is seeing.

Along with the number of homes that are selling is the fact that the prices of these properties are at a median price we haven't seen in a long time. I quickly calculated the median price for all the properties that transferred and it was below $250,000. WOW!

The higher priced properties continue to be in the Orcutt area, but even they are not selling for anything you would consider high based on prices from a number of years ago.

I am glad to report I believe the number of sales occurring in the Santa Maria area this year would cause me to believe that things are good in the real estate market and are going to get better.

Lompoc And Santa Ynez Valley Sales

As the Real Estate Market begins to get its feet back under it, I have been noticing some pockets of activity. One of those pockets this month was the Santa Ynez Valley.

There were 17 transactions that closed in July. The areas covered by the Santa Ynez Valley include Solvang & Buellton, Los Olivos, & Santa Ynez. These are all very wonderful neighborhoods with their own identities.

If you dig in to the details in this area, there were a number of properties that sold over 1 million with 1 property that closed over 5 million.

Other than that, Lompoc had a busy month as well with 58 transactions. For an area that had been hard hit by the foreclosure market and had dipped way below that number this is another good month.

Lompoc's prices are pretty appealing based on what they had been just a few short years ago. Many of the homes are selling in the $250,000 range. That is very affordable for that area.

Santa Maria Home Sales Are Still Hot!

CORT has reported 148 properties transferring in the Santa Maria area in July. Once again that is a very good number. Historically, that certainly beats the numbers posted in July for the last couple years.

Many of the sellers again are banks and that is more terrific news. As the inventories of foreclosed properties continue to be sold off there will be less of those properties competing with other home sellers.

The lenders that appear to be active in this area selling off their properties are Bank of New York, HSBC Bank, Indymac, US Bank Nat Assoc, Wachovia, Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo, and the big winner with 22 properties sold was Deutsche Bank.

There were a couple of properties that sold for over 1 million, and a handful of properties that actually sold for less than $100,000. The median price was right around $250,000. I have to think buying a home in the Santa Maria area for that price is a bargain.




The conforming loan products that are out there as well as the lower price point are what is fueling this recovery. Personally, I'm glad to see it. This area got hit very hard, and it isn't completely over yet, but it does appear that the prices aren't going any lower.

Can You Believe These Numbers!

The Cort information for February came in and I can't believe how few properties closed escrow.

The home sales for Carpinteria, Goleta, Santa Barbara, & Montecito combined only hit 87. I have been in this community for about 20 years and I can't remember the number ever being that low.

It isn't unusual for the number of transactions to dip a little from January, which they did, but I just can't get over how low that number has gone.

I feel like I'm in the middle of a good old staring contest. The first person to blink loses. The buyers are staring at the seller expecting them to lower their prices and the sellers are saying I won't go any lower.

Who will blink first?

What I am hearing is that many of the sellers don't need to sell and so if they don't get their price then they will just take their property off the market.

What I'm hearing about buyers is that they are seeing properties they would like to purchase, but they think the prices are going to go lower.

I talked with a stock broker yesterday and the topic of timing the stock market came up and we both agreed it is next to impossible to do. I think the same goes for the real estate market. If buyers are waiting for the prices to decrease, they may just miss the boat on what could be the perfect home for them.

Rates are very good right now, prices have come down and buyers have choices. Sounds like a pretty good environment to me to be buying a home.

Here is how the numbers broke down.

Montecito was the only community to have it's number go up from January. The number of sold properties in Montecito was 17, up from 10 in January.

Santa Barbara saw a small decline in the number of sold properties, going from 41 to 38 in February.

The Goleta area had 26 sold properties down from 31 in January.

Last but not least was the Carpinteria area, going from 10 in January to 6 in February.

I think we will see some increased numbers in March for sold properties. I am basing that on the number of escrows we as a company have opened and are in the process of closing. Time will tell if that increase is going to be significant or not. I'm not expecting it to be, and if it isn't we may see some kind of a small surge towards the end of the year.

See You In Escrow!

February 2008 Santa Barbara Association of Realtors Statistics

You may or may not know this, but the Santa Barbara Association of Realtors puts out their official statistics once a month. They wait until the 5th business day of the month to pull their statistics. This policy is consistent with the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors.

The local statistics that are compiled cover the South County communities of Carpinteria, Summerland, Santa Barbara, Montecito, Hope Ranch, and Goleta.

The Santa Barbara Association breaks down their numbers by property type, price range and district. Some of the most commonly used information is median price , the days on market, the number of new listings, and the number of sold properties.

So much is made of the median price and whether it is going up or down.

I don't think that will really give us an idea of how healthy our market is so I'm going to focus on a couple of things here. Those things are the number of currently pending transactions, days on market, and new listings.

My thoughts are these, our market is just like most others. It is based on supply and demand. Therefore if you start tracking the number of properties that are currently in escrow and you track how long it is taking properties to sell you can get a good idea of the demand.

As far as the supply goes, I think you need to keep an eye on the number of properties that are coming on the market. That gives you an idea of how many folks are deciding to sell or where your supply is.

Here are those numbers for Feb 08 vs. Feb 07 for condos
There were 33 properties in escrow in 08 vs. 38 in 07.
Days on market in 08 was 86 vs. 165 in 07.
The number of new listings for 08 was 51 vs. 74 in 07.

Some of the differences are pretty striking. February of 2008 is showing a significant decrease in the time it takes to sell a property. Combine that with fewer properties to sell and just a few less properties in escrow and you could argue that the demand for Condominiums is going up. That strikes me as a healthy market. I have heard that properties that are coming on the market are better priced and sellers are more ready to sell than they were a year or more ago. These are the pieces of information that make me believe the volume of properties that are selling is going to start increasing.

What are the numbers for homes in the Santa Barbara area Feb. 08 vs. Feb 07?
There were 79 properties in escrow in 08 vs. 95 in 07.
Days on Market in 08 was 96 vs. 105 in 07.
The number of new listings for 08 was 140 vs. 120 in 07.

The statistics for home sales don't show quite the same picture as the ones for condos. As you can see the time to sell a home is decreasing but isn't as significant as it was with condos. The number of properties in escrow is significantly less and the number of listings is up. So if you use the same logic here you aren't seeing the demand improving yet. The good news is that the days a property is taking to sell is coming down. That tells me that well priced homes are getting snapped up. Maybe these numbers are telling us that sellers haven't quite figured out where they need to be based on the demand that is out there. Time will tell. I do think the next few months will start showing some of the same signs the condo market is showing.

So my quick opinion on the health of the market is that we are seeing signs of it transitioning from one where supply was high and demand was low to one where the supply and demand are more balanced. It will be fun to see if I'm even close.

See You In Escrow!

Property Sales Map January 2008

I have completed the South County map which covers Carpinteria to Goleta in Santa Barbara County.

The map is reflecting all the sales reported by CORT for January 2008.

For 2 months in a row there were under 100 sales in the Santa Barbara area. These sales include all the single family residences and commercial & industrial sales as well as any multi family properties.

The map is actually at the bottom of the blog. I won't post it in the text of this blog as it can make the site load slowly.

Here is a link to it if you would like to view it separately. You can also refer to the links at the right when you need it.

One thing you can do with this map is click on the show list link in the upper left and it will show you a list of the sales prices to the right if you would like to browse the sales that way.

I'll be posting more numbers and statistics on January as we get them as well as the maps for the Santa Maria, Lompoc & Santa Ynez areas.

See You In Escrow!

Realtors Home Sales Statistics For Jan 2008

Gary Woods sent out his updated statistics reviewing the market in January 2008. He has compared those numbers with Jan of 2007. One thing to make a note of is that this information only reflects the sales that were reported to The Santa Barbara Association of Realtors. There are transactions that aren't reported and I'll review them when they are available.

Total Active Listings; Jan 07 605, vs. Jan 08 676 UP +10.5%
This certainly shows that there is still a good selection to choose from when buying a home

New Listings; Jan 07 155, Jan 08 151 DOWN -2.6 %
Pretty much that same number for both years, not much to really draw any conclusions from

New Listings Median List Price; Jan 07 $1,295,000, Jan 08 $1,299,000, UP +0.4%
This tells me not much has changed when it comes to the sellers expectations of what their property is worth. The real issue is how many of these properties will sell and at what price.

Properties that went into Escrow; Jan 07 88, Jan 08 56, DOWN -36.4%
Number of Sold Properties; Jan 07 60, Jan 08 40 DOWN -33.4%
This is the trend we have been seeing for the last 6 to 7 months. It continues to tell me that there is a pent up demand we will get hit with shortly.

Median Sales Prices; Jan 07 $1,200,000 Jan 08 $1,130,000 DOWN -5.9%
The median price seems to continuu to slip and this isn't any surprise either. I'm not certain the lower price is really that significant though.

Median Sales Price without Montecito/Hope Ranch; Jan 07 $975,000 Jan 08 $920,562 DOWN -5.6%
This statistic really goes to show you that the median price decrease is the same pretty much across the board.

Average Sold Price; Jan 07 $1,928,066, Jan 08 $1,981,600 UP +2.8 %
I just feel like prices aren't going to continue to slip that much and this is representative of that.

Average Sold Price without Hope Ranch/Montecito’07 $1,338,922 ’08 $1,124,367 DOWN -6.1%
This number of course counters my last comment, but I do think prices will slip, just not that much. I have heard people predict a 25% decrease....... I don't see it.

Sold Volume Jan 07 $115,684,000 Jan 08 $79,264,025 DOWN -31.5%
This of course is representative of the number of transactions and a little lower median price.