Monday, August 25, 2008

What Do All These Foreclosure Numbers Mean Anyway?

Following all the related foreclosure numbers like I have been for the last 2 years certainly doesn't make me any expert. It really helps me to see what is happening when I can view a chart allowing me to view trends one way or the other.

The numbers for July in Santa Barbara County are intriguing to say the least. I know real estate is a very local commodity when all I read in the headlines these days is how Notice of Defaults are continuing to rise and Santa Barbara appears to be bucking the trend.

Santa Barbara County had a significant drop in the number of Notice of Defaults the County Recorder reported for July. An 18% drop causes me to think that if that keeps up this will be fantastic for the Santa Barbara Real Estate Market. So, will it?

That is the 64 million dollar question! Here are the facts, the number of Trustees Deeds have been on the rise, the number of REO's selling have been on the rise, and the number of loans adjusting have also been on the rise.

I believe the leading indicator has to be The Notice of Defaults recording. That starts the entire process of foreclosure. If they continue to decrease then so will everything else mentioned above.

I know this may be an optimistic viewpoint, but maybe just maybe all the effort being put in to keeping people out of foreclosure is beginning to work. I can tell you that the number of loans adjusting in November and December of this year is 160 and 123 respectively. That is a lot lower number than in 2007. That would appear to bode well when it comes to seeing the Notice of Default number declining.

The more I look at this chart and the numbers I've been tracking, the more I am beginning to believe the claims that we are seeing or have seen the worst of the foreclosures in Santa Barbara County.

I did hear a report today that the number of homes sold across the country increased over 3% from June. Maybe this is the start of some positive news on the real estate front.

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