Friday, September 19, 2008

Santa Barbara's "Notice of Defaults" Are On The Decline!

In light of the news last night about the government getting more involved with the bad loans that are out there, the decline in notices of defaults being recorded in Santa Barbara County is more good news in an economy that hasn't had much in recent months.

If the notice of default number continues to decline there just isn't any way the number of foreclosures will continue it's unprecedented rise. One other item of note is the number of loans that are scheduled to adjust in Santa Barbara County in the coming months is also declining sharply.

Foreclosures have been a significant part of the real escape landscape in the last couple of years. They have had as much to do with volume going down as well as the median price. I do expect them to continue to taper off through the end of the year and in to next year even if the government doesn't step in and do anything to exaggerate that decline.

What will this mean for local real estate. I think we are already seeing it in the Santa Maria and Lompoc areas. The median price there has begun to stabilize and the number of transactions has been up significantly from last year.

Since those areas have seen the most number of foreclosures it will take them more than just a few months of sales to stop feeling their affects. I do believe that you could possibly see some real price stabilization early next year, with a threat of prices rising sometime near the end of 2009.

As far as the Santa Barbara area is concerned it may take a little longer to see any real price appreciation. The north county may be a barometer of things to come on the south coast and will probably see prices rising sooner than the Santa Barbara, Goleta, and Carpinteria areas will. With the new government program that is being finalized this weekend though all bets are off on exactly how quickly things will get back on track.

1 comment:

Kevin Schmidtchen said...


Good article and good to hear the news. Hopefully there will start to be more good news over the coming months in both the real estate world and the overall financial world.

Kevin Schmidtchen