Hayes Commercial Publishes Commercial Property 2nd Quarter Review

Hayes Commercial has put out their review of commercial property activity for the first half of the year.

The report includes retail, industrial, and multi-family statistics.

The information about vacancy rates, as well as property sales is interesting to read.

Check it out

Santa Barbara Area Home Sales In April Trend Up!

Well it has been a while since the number of sales on the south coast has exceeded 100 and in April we hit 111. That beats the December number of 108 which was the most recent month over 100.

Since January we have seen a steady climb in sales, and 111 is a 26% increase from March. Not bad!

Carpinteria almost doubled the number of sales and went from 6 to 11. There were 2 high priced properties transferring, 168 Rincon Point Rd for $5,500,000 and 3284 Beach Club Rd for $6,100,000. Check out those properties. I could certainly live there!

Santa Barbara went from 40 transactions to 59 in April. with the highest priced property being 939 Arbolado Road.

Goleta had 24 sales in April. This market appears to be a bit anemic since there isn't much inventory. 24 was only an increase of 1 sale over March's number. Many of the sales in Goleta appear to be condos.

Montecito didn't show much improvement, but did increase from 11 to 13 in April. 1445 S. Jameson Ln. sold for $4,000,000 and that is one terrific looking home. It has a nice photo tour if you want to check it out.

Hope Ranch and Summerland both had properties sell in April when they didn't have any sell in March.

Historically these numbers aren't terrific, but it sure does feel as though buyers are starting to make offers and close transactions at a little brisker pace than they had been the previous few months. I wouldn't be surprised to see the number of transactions be above 100 in the months to come.

If you would like to check some additional information please view this link; CORT-Sales Stats By Area

Can The Market Be Heating Up?

I know the sales volume in the south county of Santa Barbara has been setting records, records for the lowest number in recent history, but in many places of California the volume is up, way up!

This CNN Money article points to some real significant signs of life in California real estate.

In the lower end markets the number of sales are up significantly and have been for a number of months. In February 2009 Californian's bought 600,000 homes according to the California Association of Realtors. That is an 80% increase from February 2007.

These sales appear to be fueled by low mortgage rates and the sense that prices are hitting or nearing the bottom. This is also being made evident by the activities of investors getting back in to the market.

Here in Santa Barbara County we have seen this happening in Santa Maria where they were hit very hard by the foreclosures that many parts of the country have felt. The number of properties selling has increased significantly and doesn't seem to be slowing down.

The majority of these properties are banked owned or in some state of the foreclosure process and I would think buyers are sensing them being a bargain, especially with the low interest rates that are available. \

If you don't believe me, make sure you read the article I mentioned above.

Refinancing Is ON!

I do the best I can to keep up on all the real estate news and many of the headlines these days are about refinancing. Check out these recent articles.

Market Watch  Applications filed to refinance an existing mortgage rose an unadjusted 41.5% last week, compared with the week before.

U S News & World Report The Mortgage Bankers Association on Tuesday jacked up its 2009 forecast for mortgage originations to reflect the Fed's recent moves to engineer lower mortgage rates. The group now expects mortgage originations to total $2.78 trillion this year

Market Watch 30 Year Mortgage Rate at 4.85%

Having the mortgage industry get busy again will help our economy in many ways.

My biggest concern is, are they ready for it?

In the last few years this industry has seen it's workforce shrink significantly. This happened in the form of layoffs and of course the closing of many mortgage lenders. So handling the increase in business will be tough for the present staff to accomplish.  I know this to be true in Santa Barbara.

The other piece of the puzzle is even though applications are up, will this reflect in actual closings being up as significantly? Borrowers are having a harder time qualifying and of course properties may not be worth what borrowers are expecting them to be worth.

The bottom line to me though is if you can borrow now and need to borrow now GO FOR IT!

Radius Group Releases Their 2008 Commercial Vacancy & Market Overview

If you want to stay on top of the commercial real estate business in Santa Barbara you will want to read the latest information coming from the Radius Group.

More Evidence Of The Credit Crunch

It appears to me that the definition of a credit crunch consists of 2 things. People getting more and more in debt and institutions not willing to refinance that debt or lend money at all.

So, where are we in Santa Barbara County?

In the communities on the south coast, Santa Barbara, Goleta, Montecito, & Carpinteria the number of refinances that closed in November is 20% of what it was just a year ago. To put it another way, it is down 80% from a year ago. That is a staggering number when you think about when this credit crunch began. It began in August or September of last year. If you look closely at the chart you will see that the average refinance amount is huge. That is attributed to a 68 million dollar refinance that Wachovia recorded. WOW!

Is the news any different in Santa Maria? NO!

The volume of loans there is down about 80% from the previous year as well. The only difference in Santa Maria is that in the last 5 months the purchase loans have outnumbered the refinance transactions. I would think that is a good sign, since most of those purchase loans are buyers, buying bank owned properties.

Now how different is the Lompoc area? NOT MUCH!

They are in the same situation that Santa Maria is in. Refinance volume is down over 80% from last year and there are more purchase loans than refinances and have been for the last 5 months.

I am not sure if this will change in the near future but I can say with certainty that the number of refinances in process right now has increased dramatically. We will have to wait and see if the properties are able to appraise or the borrowers are able to qualify.

The Lenders Are Still Land Barons

Whether the lenders want to be or not they are land barons these days. Countrywide had been winning the race of who takes back the most properties every month until November. They only had 4 on this months list.

Washington Mutual was the big winner with 8 properties, but Deutsche Bank came in a close second with 7. There were only a total of 85 properties taken back in November.

There were a handful of properties on the list that had gone in to default back in 2007 but for the most part most of the properties the lenders took back had been defaulted on since May or June.

Only 13 of those properties had loans over $500,000 with only 1 being over 1 million at $1,348,319. 14 properties on the list were in the Santa Barbara, Goleta areas with the remaining 71 properties being in the Santa Maria and Lompoc areas.

Check them out on the map below.

November Sales Turn Cold!

There are certainly many records being set in the financial world these days. Real Estate is no different. The number of Santa Barbara area homes sold in November is another all time low as far as I know. I did have my hopes up that the last quarter of this year would see more sales than last year.

Two months in to the last quarter of the year and the Santa Barbara Real Estate Sales are 3 transactions behind where they were last year. Come on December! In 2007 there were 93 transactions in December. After seeing what we opened as a company in November it is going to be close. We have a number of transactions that are wanting to close by the end of the year, so there may be a small surge.

So what did sell in November of 2008? The highest priced sale was a property in the Carpinteria, Montecito area at 915 Cima Del Mundo for $6,500,000. That has become a pretty hot area for the well to do recently. Other than that Montecito had the usual 2, 3, & 4 million dollar sales.

The rest of the South County saw pretty normal sales prices and nothing really out of the ordinary for this market. Santa Barbara, Montecito, & Carpinteria all had fewer homes sell this year than last. Goleta was the one area that saw a small increase in home sales over last year.

Check out your favorite area on the map below.

October, Best Month Since June For Sales

October's real estate transactions hit 126 for the Santa Barbara area. June of 2008 had only 1 more transaction, and the highest number of sales in a given month this year was 135 in April.

Santa Barbara, Goleta, Carpinteria, and Montecito are communities that will always be desirable places to live. This is helping to deliver a consistent level of home sales. The buying season is usually from March to October and this year only 18 transactions seperated the high and low monthly sales number for that period.

Can the stock market say that? I know my 401k can't say that, or should I say my 101k. Like any good investment, demand is part of the magic that makes it go up in value. The demand for Santa Barbara property this year has not been what it had been in years past, but the consistency makes me believe the demand has found it's bottom.

The supply has been pretty consistent as well, so if the demand begins to build next year then the price of homes may have reached it's bottom. I know there is a ton of unanswered questions with respects to our economy, but if what I am hearing is correct, then real estate may lead us out of this downturn and some of the signs I'm seeing are giving me hope.

The Lenders Continue Their Foreclosures

October in Santa Barbara County saw lenders take back 109 properties countywide. That number is significantly lower than August or September where there were 211 and 208 respectively. That has to be good news for someone.

There were 17 properties total for the communities of Santa Barbara, Goleta, Carpinteria, and Montecito. That is about a 20% decrease from the prior 2 months.

Lompoc saw only 20 or so properties in there area and Santa Maria continues to be the foreclosure captital in Santa Barbara County with 70ish properties going back to the bank in October.

The majority of the loan amounts appear to be below $500,000 with many in the $200,000 to $300,000 range. In the south county the number was split between homes and condominiums. In the northern part of the county there were very few condominiums.

Countrywide continued to have the most properties on the list, but they didn't overwhelm the list like they have in the previous months. Make sure to check out the map below to see more details for the properties and areas you are interested in.

October Home Sales In Santa Barbara

October in Santa Barbara isn't about the leaves turning color or the chill in the air, it is about the surfers getting excited for the winter swell.

 

I happen to love this time of year, the views are incredible and so are the sunsets. The real estate market usually cools down in the 4th quarter as people begin to focus on the holidays ahead.

 

So what did sell in October?

 

Carpinteria saw 13 transactions according to CORT. In looking them over, many of them appeared to be condominiums. There were 3 transactions that closed that were part of a new complex that appears to be almost sold out.

• 4357 Carpinteria Ave. #3 sold for $500,000
• 4365 Carpinteria Ave. #6 sold for $600,000
• 4367 Carpintera Ave. #7 sold for $600,000

Goleta saw 37 properties transfer in October. I didn't see a real trend as to the types of properties changing hands, but I can tell you the median price is $650,000. That is sounding pretty darn affordable based on recent years. The highest priced sale was for a commercial building at 5050 Hollister for $3,500,000. The highest priced homes that sold in Goleta were both on Vereda Del Ciervo. 260 sold for $1,450,000 and 445 sold for $1,500,000. 

Montecito saw 14 properties transfered and only 2 of them were under $1,500,000. The higher priced sales were;

• 36 Seaview Dr. for $3,300,000
• 1444 School House Rd. for $3,250,000
• 2694 Sycamore Canyon Rd. for $3,000,000

There were a whopping 60 properties that sold in the city of Santa Barbara. That is a good solid number and the types of properties appear to be very diversified.

The highest priced properties on the list CORT reported were both in Summerland.

• 3517 Padaro Ln for $6,150,000
• 2375 Finney St. East for $8,000,000

Thats the sales news, enjoy viewing the map and finding out what properties sold in your neighborhood and what they sold for.

Lending Activity In Santa Barbara

It has been a couple of months since I updated my charts on lending activity in Santa Barbara. Not much in the way of change. Purchase loans are still happening and refinance loans are really slowing down.

I'm trying to figure out what is causing the refinance loans to slow down. I'm coming up with a number of scenarios.

• First, it could certainly be what we would all expect. Property values are down and loan rates just aren't that appealing when you compare them to the rates we got accustomed to in the 5% range.
• Second, maybe banks aren't lending the way they once did. Qualifying for a refinance loan today is certainly more difficult than in the past and this is the banks way of saying we don't want to give you any money.
• Another possibility could be borrowers just aren't feeling the need to refinance. They have figured out pulling money out of their homes might not be a good idea, and or their interest rate is still pretty good.

It's probably a combination of many things some of them probably weren't mentioned. If you have a thought feel free to share it.

What Did The Banks Take Back In September?

There is definetely something to be said for consistency! That is what the last 2 months have yielded in terms of properties going back to their respective lenders due to foreclosure.

In August there were 211 and in September there were 209. How's that for a horse race? Seeing this number go lower in the coming months is what I'm expecting since the number of notice of defaults is dropping.



25 of the 209 properties taken back were in the Santa Barbara, Goleta, Montecito, and Carpinteria areas.  This is a small increase over the previous months, but nothing significant.

Countrywide was again the big land baron taking back 45 of the 209 properties. I have only been watching who the lender is for a couple of months now, but Countrywide is certainly the big winner or loser depending on your perspective.

Lompoc had 35 properties and Santa Maria had a total of 125 with the sourrounding areas in the northern part of the county sharing the rest of the properties.

Santa Barbara County Foreclosure Trends

I don't know about anybody else, but I'm getting pretty dizzy watching the stock market go up 400 points one minute and then be down 200 points the next. It has been a very wild ride to say the least if you are paying attention there.

The Santa Barbara County real estate market hasn't been so up and down. It has been pretty consistent for the most part.

With respects to foreclosures and some of the indicators I watch to tell me whether they are slowing or not, the trend is certainly slowing.

The most significant number in September was the number of notice of defaults the county reported recording. There were only 112 as compared to 269 in August. I am certain that some of the legislation requiring lenders to get in touch with borrowers before recording these notices is having an affect on how many are being recorded, but I also think they will be working out the terms of some borrowers loans which again will cause the default rate to slow down.

The number of trustees deeds has also declined in a large way from 217 in August to 146 in September. More obviously good news for the foreclosure market.

The last 2 pieces of the equation are also spelling relief for the foreclosure market. The number of loans that are adjusting this month is 228 which is the peak for the year. I have data out to January 2009 and that number is 115. This tells me less borrowers are going to feel stuck in the adjustable loans they have.

The final part of the foreclosure equation in my mind is how many of these foreclosures are selling? This is important since that inventory needs to be bought up before we are going to see prices start to really stabilize and climb. In Santa Barbara County there were 81 of those properties purchased in September. This number has continually increased since January of this year showing me that the price point is being reached.

Foreclosures aren't going away any time soon, but they are selling and they are becoming less of an impact on our residential markets.

Are You Searching For Foreclosures Or Short Sales In Santa Barbara?

I had the pleasure today of speaking to Sue Irwin. She is an agent working for Prudential California Realty in Santa Barbara. She introduced me to a new website that she and her partner Kalia Rork have just launched.

http://www.sbforeclosureinfo.com/

She promoted it as a place where someone can go and either get educated on short sales and foreclosures or search those types of properties that are listed in the Santa Barbara area.

I know that I have certainly been asked more then once on how to find distressed properties in Santa Barbara. This seems to be a quick way to search the Multiple Listing Service for any properties that are listed for sale meeting those requirements. 

Good Luck to Sue and Kalia for launching what I think is a unique service. At least it is for now! 

August Property Sales Kept Up The Consistency!

It is that time of month again when I'm able to map out all the home and property sales that happened in the Santa Barbara, Goleta, Montecito, and Carpinteria areas.

Consistency is once again the theme, 123 sales but there was one biggie. A piece of property on Cima Del Mundo sold for $26,400,000 as reported by CORT. I sure would like to have a look at that property. Maybe Google Earth will give me a shot. Better yet I found a photo tour you can view if you would like. That is a nice house!

The next biggest sale for August was 34 W. Victoria, which if memory serves me right is the Vons site at the corner of Chapala and Victoria. That sold for $12,500,000. I wonder if the new owners have some sort of plans for that location.

Goleta real estate appears to be continuing to hang in there. A property at 611 Corte Bella sold for $2,050,000 in August when a property earlier in the year on that same street sold for just under $2,000,000. It is interesting to see a number of properties selling below $750,000.

Carpinteria real estate is continuing to do what you would expect in this market. The sleepy little seaside surf town had 10 properties sell for well under 1 million. As a matter of fact a number of those properties went for under 500k.

Montecito had a solid month with quite a few properties in the 2-4 million dollar range selling.

Santa Barbara had a number of sales as well, with the median price being in the mid 900's. There were a number of sales over the $2,000,000 number with 1732 Santa Barbara St. going for $3,850,000.

I'm sure there were many sales you may be interested in looking up yourself, so don't hesitate to use the map below to quell your curiosity.

Santa Barbara's August Sales Numbers.

How does 123 transactions in August hit ya? The impression it left on me, was same ole same ole. Since March of this year the number of transactions in the Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Goleta, & Montecito real estate markets has been very consistent.

The lowest number during that time frame was 118, and the highest number was 135. During that time we have seen the number of foreclosure properties jump a bit from a few a month to 22 or so. There have been a number of financial institutions that have had to take some drastic action just to survive. Some didn't! The number of refinanced home loans has been dramatically reduced.

Besides the number of transactions, home loan rates have also been relatively unchanged. Qualifying for a loan has remained relatively difficult even for the most qualified buyers, but it is getting done.

What does it all mean? For me, I am glad that the number of properties changing hands has remained pretty consistent. When many things around these sales have been in total chaos the consistency tells me there is still some demand. People are willing to buy homes even though the financial world is upside down.

When some of the other areas of the financial markets get some consistent results then you will see some confidence come back in to the real estate lending field. Until that happens I think the number of sales is going to remain pretty consistent, some might say boring.

See You In Escrow!

Santa Barbara's "Notice of Defaults" Are On The Decline!

In light of the news last night about the government getting more involved with the bad loans that are out there, the decline in notices of defaults being recorded in Santa Barbara County is more good news in an economy that hasn't had much in recent months.

If the notice of default number continues to decline there just isn't any way the number of foreclosures will continue it's unprecedented rise. One other item of note is the number of loans that are scheduled to adjust in Santa Barbara County in the coming months is also declining sharply.

Foreclosures have been a significant part of the real escape landscape in the last couple of years. They have had as much to do with volume going down as well as the median price. I do expect them to continue to taper off through the end of the year and in to next year even if the government doesn't step in and do anything to exaggerate that decline.

What will this mean for local real estate. I think we are already seeing it in the Santa Maria and Lompoc areas. The median price there has begun to stabilize and the number of transactions has been up significantly from last year.

Since those areas have seen the most number of foreclosures it will take them more than just a few months of sales to stop feeling their affects. I do believe that you could possibly see some real price stabilization early next year, with a threat of prices rising sometime near the end of 2009.

As far as the Santa Barbara area is concerned it may take a little longer to see any real price appreciation. The north county may be a barometer of things to come on the south coast and will probably see prices rising sooner than the Santa Barbara, Goleta, and Carpinteria areas will. With the new government program that is being finalized this weekend though all bets are off on exactly how quickly things will get back on track.

Countrywide Is The Land Baron Of Santa Barbara County!

I just pulled up the August information for properties being taken back due to foreclosure and Countrywide took back 25% of the overall number for August in Santa Barbara County.

It isn't even worth trying to figure out who was in 2nd. With 211 properties going back to their respective lenders as REO's and Countrywide with 54 (if I counted correctly) the rest of the pack was left in the dust.

I did see the usual suspects though, Wells Fargo, WAMU, Chase etc.....

One field of information I didn't remember seeing in the past was the information on surnames. I don't know what this really has to do with anything, but 107 of the 211 properties had been owned by people with hispanic surnames.

21 of the 211 were in the Santa Barbara, Goleta, Montecito, and Carpinteria areas. If memory serves me correctly, that is 1 less than what occurred in July. So, 180 of the properties on the list are from the Santa Maria, Lompoc, & Santa Ynez Valley.

Where Have All The Refinances Gone?

Refinancing your home was definetely at the center of the economic party a couple of years ago. Not any more, the number of refinances in the Santa Barbara area has slowed to a trickle.

I am going to have to change the way I format my chart pretty soon, because in some areas the number of purchase loans is outnumbering the amount of refinance loans being done in a given month.

The Santa Barbara, Goleta, Carpinteria, Montecito areas haven't quite seen the number drop that far yet, but it is the lowest it has been in years.

A year ago, all I kept hearing was that this year could possibly end up being one of the biggest refinance markets we would ever see. The folks predicting this were seeing the huge number of loans that were going to be adjusting and determining that they would all refinance.

Many borrowers were opting for programs like a fixed for 5 year loan and those loans are all about to adjust, if they aren't already. I guess the borrowers are just not being hit with the large adjustments up in their payments and or they are stuck with the loan they have since lending standards have tightened.

Whatever the reason, the refinance party is over. Someone turn out the lights.