It's A Slow Climb!

March's property sales numbers are in and they are a small improvement over February. Maybe small is a relative thing. February had 73 and March had 80. The way I do my math that is 7 transactions or almost a 10% increase. A 10% increase sounds better, or does it?

Last year there were 122 transactions, up from 89 in February of 2008. That is a 37% jump from one month to the next. Now 10% doesn't sound that terrific. How about 2007, we jumped from 129 to 177. That is also about a 37% increase.

So can you see why I titled this post, It's A Slow Climb? Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Goleta, and Montecito have been hit hard by this real estate slow down. The number of sales occurring on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County is at historic lows. At least as far back as my records and or memory can go.

Some of the highlights for March were;

• Padaro Lane selling for $6,350,000. Looks like it may have been listed for over 8,000,000 according to Zillow. 
• Montecito reported 3 properties over 5 million, 566 Picacho Lane, 14 Cima Del Mundo Rd, and 779 Ayala.
• There were a number of properties under $300,000, 5930 Birch St., 4651 Oak Glen Dr. Unit A, and 450 Camino Del Remedio Unit E

The good news is we the number of sales are improving. It appears to be a slow climb, but at least the numbers are moving upward. I will have links to this information shortly, so check back and look it over.

October, Best Month Since June For Sales

October's real estate transactions hit 126 for the Santa Barbara area. June of 2008 had only 1 more transaction, and the highest number of sales in a given month this year was 135 in April.

Santa Barbara, Goleta, Carpinteria, and Montecito are communities that will always be desirable places to live. This is helping to deliver a consistent level of home sales. The buying season is usually from March to October and this year only 18 transactions seperated the high and low monthly sales number for that period.

Can the stock market say that? I know my 401k can't say that, or should I say my 101k. Like any good investment, demand is part of the magic that makes it go up in value. The demand for Santa Barbara property this year has not been what it had been in years past, but the consistency makes me believe the demand has found it's bottom.

The supply has been pretty consistent as well, so if the demand begins to build next year then the price of homes may have reached it's bottom. I know there is a ton of unanswered questions with respects to our economy, but if what I am hearing is correct, then real estate may lead us out of this downturn and some of the signs I'm seeing are giving me hope.

August Property Sales Kept Up The Consistency!

It is that time of month again when I'm able to map out all the home and property sales that happened in the Santa Barbara, Goleta, Montecito, and Carpinteria areas.

Consistency is once again the theme, 123 sales but there was one biggie. A piece of property on Cima Del Mundo sold for $26,400,000 as reported by CORT. I sure would like to have a look at that property. Maybe Google Earth will give me a shot. Better yet I found a photo tour you can view if you would like. That is a nice house!

The next biggest sale for August was 34 W. Victoria, which if memory serves me right is the Vons site at the corner of Chapala and Victoria. That sold for $12,500,000. I wonder if the new owners have some sort of plans for that location.

Goleta real estate appears to be continuing to hang in there. A property at 611 Corte Bella sold for $2,050,000 in August when a property earlier in the year on that same street sold for just under $2,000,000. It is interesting to see a number of properties selling below $750,000.

Carpinteria real estate is continuing to do what you would expect in this market. The sleepy little seaside surf town had 10 properties sell for well under 1 million. As a matter of fact a number of those properties went for under 500k.

Montecito had a solid month with quite a few properties in the 2-4 million dollar range selling.

Santa Barbara had a number of sales as well, with the median price being in the mid 900's. There were a number of sales over the $2,000,000 number with 1732 Santa Barbara St. going for $3,850,000.

I'm sure there were many sales you may be interested in looking up yourself, so don't hesitate to use the map below to quell your curiosity.

Santa Barbara's August Sales Numbers.

How does 123 transactions in August hit ya? The impression it left on me, was same ole same ole. Since March of this year the number of transactions in the Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Goleta, & Montecito real estate markets has been very consistent.

The lowest number during that time frame was 118, and the highest number was 135. During that time we have seen the number of foreclosure properties jump a bit from a few a month to 22 or so. There have been a number of financial institutions that have had to take some drastic action just to survive. Some didn't! The number of refinanced home loans has been dramatically reduced.

Besides the number of transactions, home loan rates have also been relatively unchanged. Qualifying for a loan has remained relatively difficult even for the most qualified buyers, but it is getting done.

What does it all mean? For me, I am glad that the number of properties changing hands has remained pretty consistent. When many things around these sales have been in total chaos the consistency tells me there is still some demand. People are willing to buy homes even though the financial world is upside down.

When some of the other areas of the financial markets get some consistent results then you will see some confidence come back in to the real estate lending field. Until that happens I think the number of sales is going to remain pretty consistent, some might say boring.

See You In Escrow!

Southern Santa Barbara Real Estate Numbers

July was a pretty lack luster month for home sales on the South Coast. The South Coast includes many incredible communities like, Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Montecito, and Goleta. The number of sales was 118 but that doesn't tell the entire story. Real Estate is a very local commodity and is getting more local by the minute. Looking in to the specific area that is of interest to you is very important. So let's do that!

The Santa Barbara real estate market appears to me that it just hasn't really got it's legs under it yet. It's trying, but as you can see from the accompanying chart one month it's heading up the next month it is heading down, and overall it is way behind last year and the year before. March and April were showing some good signs and then we had a drop in May and a tick up June, and then July dipped again to 56 sales.

In Montecito the real estate market has had a pretty good year but is appearing to be taking the summer off. June and July's numbers were slightly below the numbers for 2007 and 2006. If you look March, April and May though you can see there were quite a few sales and the last report I saw showed median home prices up a bit. If I had to hazard a quess for this market I would think it is going to continue to average around 16 or 17 sales for the rest of the year, making this year a pretty decent year for Montecito.

Carpinteria and Summerland appear to be in the same boat as Santa Barbara. These communities are just ticking along at a pretty sleepy pace. July was the first time all year that there were more sales (10) than in one of the previous 2 years. Carpinteria has some of the more affordable neighborhoods on the south coast and so I would expect them to begin to pick up as prices have dropped pretty significantly.

Last but not least is the Goleta real estate market. As Carpinteria does Goleta has many of the more affordable housing tracts around. I believe this is why we are seeing the numbers in Goleta beating last year. If you look at the 2nd quarter as a whole this year beat last year by 1 transaction. Not only that but July of this year was ahead of July last year. I think the price point in Goleta is starting to be discovered. Buyers are beginning to pay what sellers are asking for. The sellers have come down enough to where buyers are seeing these properties as bargains. This is one of those markets to watch. It may be the first one that signals a turn around on the south coast.

What's Happening On The South Coast?

Santa Barbara's South Coast's Real Estate Market has been experiencing historically low numbers of transactions. Carpinteria, Goleta, Santa Barbara, and Montecito have all had their part in these numbers. Real Estate, even in our little part of the world has not been immune to what is happening every where.

This year the highest number of real estate transactions that have been recorded was 135 back in April. That was followed by 132 in May, 127 in June, and 118 in July.

You have to go back to August of 2007 to find a number higher than these. Guess what happened then? The credit crisis hit and we haven't been the same since.

People I speak with seem to be under the impression that getting a loan to buy a property is impossible. I'm here to tell you it isn't. We are closing escrows and most of them have loans involved. So if qualifying for a loan is what has you on the sidelines right now make sure you check in with any one of a number of terrific loan people here in town.

I am also hearing that people think the price of real estate is going to continue to drop here on the South Coast. If it is, I'm not sure it will be for much longer as I've seen the northern part of our county begin to heat up. I haven't done any extensive reasearch, but I believe the age old supply and demand theory. The prices in Santa Maria and Lompoc must be viewed as good by those buying and since the number of closed purchases is up significantly you would think the demand will keep prices from dropping any lower. I also believe the Santa Barbara and Goleta areas won't be far behind.

I also know I haven't met anyone yet who can really predict the bottom of the market. By the time all the signs of the bottom are evident it is too late. If you are considering purchasing in the near future get prepared now. The opportunity may present itself sooner than you might expect. Stay in touch with your real estate agent and keep abreast of properties in your price range and locale.

If you need a recommendation for a real estate agent or loan agent don't hesitate to get in touch with me. I have been in this community and in this business for 18 years.

See You In Escrow

Santa Barbara's June Real Estate Roundup

In perusing all the various news sources in our communities, you will always find some tidbits on the Santa Barbara real estate scene. Some of these items end up being controversial, others are just the latest and greatest on housing here on the central coast. Take a look at what has been in the news this month.

Blogabarbara's Coverage of the Fairview Gardens Housing Violations
The Independent has another article on the Miramar.

Daily Sound Articles
2 New Parcel Taxes
Housing Policy Changes
Veronica Meadows Project

The Santa Barbara Housing Blog Takes A Siesta

Santa Barbara's Blog covers yet another Chapala development.

It was a busy Real Estate month on council member Das Williams blog
Veronica Meadows
Inclusionary Housing Ordinance
Condo Conversions and Renters
The Condo Issues Summarized

Noozhawk had a couple of articles, one by yours truly.
May Property Sales
Signs of a Real Estate Recovery

I think that should keep you updated. Happy Reading!

California Association of Realtors Numbers for Santa Barbara Real Estate

I had the good fortune of seeing Leslie Appleton Young speak in Santa Barbara yesterday and it was refreshing hearing her speakhow she speaks without overwhelming you with economic data. I will be getting a copy of her presentation soon and post some of the useful information she shared. In the mean time I went to the California Association of Realtors website and poked around a little and found some statistics I found useful for December of 2007.

The first was the median home sales price for Santa Barbara, South and North County.

• Santa Barbara County

$492,860 (12/07) $673,080 (11/07) $607,140 (12/06)

• Santa Barbara South Coast

$925,000 (12/07) $1,080,000 (11/07) $1,250,000 (12/06)

• North Santa Barbara County

$323,810 (12/07) $354,760 (11/07) $431,710 (12/06)

The comparison of prices from either the previous month and or the previous year shows a pretty sizable drop. This isn't any huge surprise, although it is affecting those properties on the market that have been listed for a while and haven't adjusted their asking price. If they want to sell they are going to have to chase the market down at this point. The other point to bring up is that there were so few sales in Dec. that it is hard to get a real idea of a true trend.

Below are the exact percentage drops as compared to November and the previous December

• Santa Barbara County

$492,860 (dec 07 price) -26.8% (nov 07) -18.8% (dec 06)

• Santa Barbara South Coast

$925,000 (dec 07 price) -14.4% (nov 07) -26.0% (dec 06)

• North Santa Barbara County

$323,810 (dec 07 price) -8.7% (nov 07) -25.0% (dec 06)

Like I said, these are pretty significant differences, but the amount of sales in Dec 07 as a low going back at least 10 years makes it hard to make any significant predictions on where the market really is.

The January month end numbers have just arrived, so check back soon to see how they turned out. See You In Escrow!

Santa Maria and Lompoc Real Estate December 2007

The North County Sales showed some signs of life in December rebounding from October and November's numbers. The Santa Maria and Lompoc Real Estate Sales posted a 13% gain in the number of sales from November. If you look at some of the past years, this seems pretty typical in that market. In reviewing the list of sales, there were quite a few bank owned properties selling. Hopefully that is going to help strengthen that market by getting those properties out of the mix of listings that are available. If you focus your attention to the Santa Maria Orcutt sales, there increase over November was 17.5%. This was the highest number of sales in that area since August of this year. It is interesting to note that for December 2006 in Santa Maria there was not an increase in the number of sales as there had been in previous years. Lompoc on the other hand was flat. There were 25 sales in November and December of this year. I'm not quite sure what to make of the Santa Maria and Lompoc Real Estate markets. I do think that shortly people are going to start understanding that the prices are excellent. The really good news for these areas is that many properties can be purchased with a conforming loan. Those loans have excellent interest rates, even though they are a bit harder to qualify for than they were a year or so ago. See You In Escrow!

National Housing News

I read an article in Inman News today that seemed to say we are in an interesting time nationally regarding the housing market. The median prices across the country continue to slip, while housing affordability is rising a bit if you compare the 3rd quarters for the last 2 years. I had not been paying attention to the affordability index recently and it will be interesting to see how that is affected as the prices adjust. I am curious what others might think that will do to consumer confidence. It would make sense to me that if the affordability of homes increases, so then would consumer confidence. My only thoughts are how soon will the consumer confidence rise after the affordability index rises. A huge jolt of confidence is precisely what I think this market needs. The stock market has had a couple of good rallies recently. I know the White House adjusted it's growth numbers slightly for next year, but growth is good and being on the plus side of that is always good. The other piece of confidence I think is another group that needs a big jolt of confidence is the investors who have purchased mortgage backed securities. Once they start feeling good and the home buyers are confident things will get back on track. It can't be too far away. Let me know what you think. See You In Escrow!

2008, What Is Your Plan?

I know you have barely digested your Thanksgiving Turkey and are still feasting on the leftovers. I know that agents that want to hit the ground running next year are busy doing 2 things. The first thing is they haven't given up on this year. There are many agents putting escrows together right now. The second thing they are doing is putting a plan together for next year. Things like budgets and marketing plans as well as putting new programs together to enable you to hit your goals for 2008 are very important. I have never put together a business plan for a real estate agent but I would assume it would consist of many of the same things that my business plan consists of. Goals for revenue, by month broken down in to the number of escrows opened and closed. That would also include an activity plan focused on how many customer referrals you are going to achieve as well as new customers you are going to acquire. One good local resource is the SCORE organization. This is the Service Corp of Retired Executives. Santa Barbara score.org They give free business planning tips. A quick search on the Internet gave me quite a few options. Here are a couple that might help get your juices flowing. About.com has a pretty simple list of helpful ideas as well as a link to a book that the author is trying to sell. I also ran across this blog that looked pretty interesting and easy to follow, Realblogging.com. The blog actually had a couple contributors who posted business planning advice. Good Luck and See You In Escrow!

How Will The California Fires Affect Real Estate?

The wildfires that have hit California recently have truly devastated many families and communities. There are many humanitarian efforts under way to help the folks who have lost their homes and possessions. The insurance companies and FEMA have been on the scene to give guidance and financial help to folks who need it. I can remember the Painted Cave Fire that hit Santa Barbara in 1990. Our entire community was affected. Hotel rooms and rentals were all taken, contractors were busier than ever. In many ways after we got past all the sadness that the fire created there was a silver lining. The neighborhoods that were all rebuilt are thriving again and the homes are better than ever. Many jobs and careers were launched in an effort to help and rebuild what the fire took away. I am wondering if that is the type of thing that will happen all over again with our most recent wildfires. I know that the cost of remodeling a home has become very expensive and finding contractors who aren't over booked is a very difficult thing. Will the rebuilding efforts raise the costs of remodeling just through competition for contractors and supplies. Of course supplying this industry with jobs and consumers purchasing items to replace what they have lost could help our economy. I'm just not sure what the effects will be. I am thinking it could end up creating some positive economic information. I hope this post doesn't come off as morbid in the midst of what has happened and is still happening for many. I truly feel for the people who have lost their irreplaceble memories and would certainly recommend that if you haven't already donated to a fund you may want to click on the Red Cross website and do it now. See You In Escrow!

Is Realtor.com Worth The Money?

I just went to a presentation done by Realtor.com which promoted their enhanced marketing programs. I was a littel surprised at the turnout. There were probably about 60 agents in the room at the Doubltree. I will say that they certainly are a well run group that puts on a good presentation that is professional and informational. Being a person who works for a title company I had not been exposed to their programs in quite some time. It was very good to hear that their listings are featured on sites like MSN, and the Wall Street Journal. I would think it was also very good to know that they received 5.7 unique users per month. I would think it was also very useful to know that listings with multiple photos are viewed more often than ones without photos. The one thing that I really would think makes an agents decision difficult is there aren't any real guarantees that any of their plans will do anything but get you some exposure. It seemed like the same old sales pitch I can remember from Newspaper advertisers or Radio stations. The pitch was basically we put you in front of more potential customers than anyone else. If you spend more money (and in some cases it seemed like a lot of money) you can increase your exposure which will give you a better chance of capturing customers. The other approach they took was to give an agent some tools to impress potential listing customers with, which in turn should generate more listings. I would love to hear real world experiences that anyone is having to hear whether signing up for the Featured Homes, or Featured Communities Marketing Systems is worth the pretty price tag they are asking for. See You In Escrow!