The Radius Group South Coast Review

Below is the information that The Radius Group sends out to it's customers. It is chalk full of very good commercial property related information. Check it out!


Radius Group Commercial Real Estate is pleased to provide the RADIUS GROUP SOUTH COAST 1st Quarter 2009 REVIEW for the commercial markets of Santa Barbara, Goleta and Carpinteria. Included in the report are the largest leased properties and largest vacancies in each city during the 1st Quarter 2009.

The following is a summary of Vacancy Rates from January 2009 to March 2009.

Santa Barbara

Office Vacancy increased from 4.5% to 5.7%.
Industrial Vacancy increased slightly from 0.8% to 1.0%.
Retail Vacancy increased slightly from 1.4% to 2.3%.

Goleta

Office Vacancy increased slightly from 12.0% to 12.9%.
Industrial Vacancy increased slightly from 5.7% to 6.1%.

Carpinteria

Office Vacancy decreased from 8.4% to 4.8%.
Industrial Vacancy decreased slightly from 6.4% to 6.2%.

PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR DETAILED REPORT

It's A Slow Climb!

March's property sales numbers are in and they are a small improvement over February. Maybe small is a relative thing. February had 73 and March had 80. The way I do my math that is 7 transactions or almost a 10% increase. A 10% increase sounds better, or does it?

Last year there were 122 transactions, up from 89 in February of 2008. That is a 37% jump from one month to the next. Now 10% doesn't sound that terrific. How about 2007, we jumped from 129 to 177. That is also about a 37% increase.

So can you see why I titled this post, It's A Slow Climb? Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Goleta, and Montecito have been hit hard by this real estate slow down. The number of sales occurring on the South Coast of Santa Barbara County is at historic lows. At least as far back as my records and or memory can go.

Some of the highlights for March were;

• Padaro Lane selling for $6,350,000. Looks like it may have been listed for over 8,000,000 according to Zillow. 
• Montecito reported 3 properties over 5 million, 566 Picacho Lane, 14 Cima Del Mundo Rd, and 779 Ayala.
• There were a number of properties under $300,000, 5930 Birch St., 4651 Oak Glen Dr. Unit A, and 450 Camino Del Remedio Unit E

The good news is we the number of sales are improving. It appears to be a slow climb, but at least the numbers are moving upward. I will have links to this information shortly, so check back and look it over.

Can The Market Be Heating Up?

I know the sales volume in the south county of Santa Barbara has been setting records, records for the lowest number in recent history, but in many places of California the volume is up, way up!

This CNN Money article points to some real significant signs of life in California real estate.

In the lower end markets the number of sales are up significantly and have been for a number of months. In February 2009 Californian's bought 600,000 homes according to the California Association of Realtors. That is an 80% increase from February 2007.

These sales appear to be fueled by low mortgage rates and the sense that prices are hitting or nearing the bottom. This is also being made evident by the activities of investors getting back in to the market.

Here in Santa Barbara County we have seen this happening in Santa Maria where they were hit very hard by the foreclosures that many parts of the country have felt. The number of properties selling has increased significantly and doesn't seem to be slowing down.

The majority of these properties are banked owned or in some state of the foreclosure process and I would think buyers are sensing them being a bargain, especially with the low interest rates that are available. \

If you don't believe me, make sure you read the article I mentioned above.

Santa Barbara County Foreclosure Update

In looking over the numbers reported by the County for Notices of Defaults, Notice of Trustees Sale, and Trustees Deeds for March, there are some real concerns.

The number of Notices of Defaults that were recorded rose significantly and is a record number. There were 414 recorded in March. This is my biggest concern since it is a leading indicator of things to come.

The number of Notice of Trustees Sale documents that were recorded was 203. This is the highest number dating back to August of 2008 which was 276. I can only think that the banks will again be receiving a number of properties back soon.

March's Trustees Deeds that were recorded totalled 86. That number is actually a bit lower than previous months. This of course would be the last number affected by the foreclosure process and I would expect it to rise.

In looking at these numbers, the number of notices of defaults rising sharply could certainly be a sign of more foreclosures to come. Some people that I have spoken to are wondering if people are allowing their properties to go in to foreclosure so they can take advantage of the benefits of modifying their loan.

Time will tell if this increase in the number of notices of defaults is going to impact the number of bank owned properties in the upcoming months. I do think it is a little bit of wishful thinking to think that people are going in to foreclosure to take advantage of getting their loan modified, but it could be part of the equation.