Santa Barbara Foreclosure Info Jan 2008

The Santa Barbara Foreclosure Chart is showing some interesting changes now that we have a few months of data to compare.

The piece of the process that starts everything else is the recording of the Notice of Default. In January in Santa Barbara County there were 284 recorded, which is the largest number since the mortgage meltdown began.

The next step in the process is the recording of a Trustees Deed. For January there were 98 recorded. This is also the largest number we've seen. This is the number that leads to all the Bank owned properties for sale.

The Bank owned properties or more commonly referred to as REO's that sold in January stayed at the same number we saw in the previous 2 months, 17.

The last, but probably not least line on the chart is the number reflecting how many loans are being adjusted in a given month. You could argue that this is the number that starts all the others moving, but I haven't figured out if there is a direct relationship yet, so I'm holding out. This number for January was 139.

As you can see from the graph the number of loans that adjusted in January is down significantly, but will be climbing in April and May back to the 180 level. This coupled with the rise in the number of Notice of Defaults and Trustees Deeds makes me think we are seeing the worst of this.

I do expect a rise in the number of foreclosed properties being sold based on what we've seen the last 12 months. The number of sales occurring seems to be about 25% of the number of Trustees deeds we record, so with that in mind we may be seeing about 25 bank owned properties closing escrow in a given month in the not too distant future.

I think we are seeing the worst of it, knowing what I know about the number of loans that are going to adjust in the next 6 months. I also think there will be some positive impact on the market with respects to the stimulus package that is being implemented.

So all that is left to say is, See You In Escrow!