Friday, September 21, 2007

The Daily Sound Got It Wrong

I was at the same forecast that the reporter from the Daily Sound was at and came away with a completely different opinion. The article that was written had a title "Real Estate Outlook Grim" that wasn't my interpretation. I would have entitled the article "Santa Barbara Real Estate Rebounding in 2008". The information relayed by the article regarding foreclosures and defaults is very misleading. That article stated "During the first part of this month there have been 578 home foreclosures and defaults in the county. On the south coast, 91 foreclosures were recorded, while there were 14 in the Santa Ynez Valley, 121 in the Lompoc Valley and 352 in the Santa Maria Valley, the booklet says." Well that is just wrong, Let me set the record straight, there are 578 homes that are currently in the process of being foreclosed upon. It takes at least 4 months for a lender to complete a foreclosure so that 578 is at best a 4 month picture of homes in the process of foreclosure. These properties can also be sold during that time or the borrower can make good on the loan. That explanation translates to the other areas (South Coast, Santa Ynez Valley, Lompoc Valley, & Santa Maria Valley) where The Daily Sound stated these numbers were for September. I did a little research in Dataquick myself and I show that there have been 234 trustees deeds recorded in the County through the end of August. That means that 234 properties have been taken back by a lender or sold to someone at a foreclosure sale for the entire year of 2007. There have been 3089 transactions in that same time period in the entire county. That makes the trustee sale about 7.5% of all the transactions. There have been 51 REO deeds recorded. That means a bank has taken back a property and sold it to a new owner. That isn't even 2% of the market so far this year. Historically these numbers are higher than we are used to seeing, but there are many transactions going on that aren't as highly advertised as these. If you want to see some additional information on the state and what is happening check out Dataquick. This chart will give you some perspective but won't be the same data I have discussed. The data above is more current. I am done ranting about this right now. Have a terrific day and See You In Escrow!

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