Thursday, September 20, 2007

Today's Santa Barbara Economic Forecast

I learned this morning that some of the most influential pieces of Santa Barbara's real estate market are things I had never really thought about. For instance did you know that the Tiger Salamander is a huge problem in the North County when it comes to trying to do any development. It has caused projects to be delayed by years, as well as creating many plan changes. I thought I would include a photo since I had no idea what one looked like. One major influence in the south county is the 101 freeway. It isn't wide enough and building any new homes is made extremely difficult because of the added traffic the new home owners would cause. The suggestion for fixing this was widening the freeway and putting in some kind of bus program for commuters. Seems to make sense to me, but I am a bit of a skeptic. I think we are going to have traffic problems no matter what we do. A brief over view of the housing forecast goes something like this. We will continue to experience flat appreciation with the possibility of some decline. Foreclosures will continue to affect the market in the North County. The number of transactions through the end of the year will be similar to what we have experienced recently. We should see a pick up in the number of transactions in 2008. Mark described our rebound as a gradual one looking like a U shaped curve instead of a quick recovery which would be better represented on a chart as a V shaped curve. You can download the economic forecast book at with the password of subprime until Monday 9-24-07. I'm going to do my best to take a look at some of the information in the book and post some comments in the future on what the numbers are telling me. SEE YOU IN ESCROW!

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